ICAIG Observatory

The length of software tasks AI agents can do autonomously at 50% reliability has doubled about every 7 months — and since 2024 closer to every ~3 months.

In one year scores rose by 18.8, 48.9 and 67.3 points on MMMU, GPQA and SWE-bench; real-world software solve rate jumped from 4.4% to 71.7%.

On SWE-bench Verified (500 real GitHub issues), autonomous coding agents reached ~80–86% by late 2025, up from under 50% in early 2025.

Training compute for frontier AI models grew ~4–5× per year from 2010 to 2024 — a trend Epoch projects to continue toward 2030.

Global data-centre electricity use is projected to roughly double from ~485 TWh (2025) to ~950 TWh by 2030 — about 3% of world electricity.

The price to query a GPT-3.5-level model fell from $20.00 to $0.07 per million tokens between Nov 2022 and Oct 2024 — a 280× drop in ~18 months.

DeepSeek disclosed its open-weight R1 reasoning model's final training run cost just $294,000; R1 was released under open weights on 20 Jan 2025.

In June 2025 the US AI Safety Institute was renamed the Center for AI Standards and Innovation (CAISI), pivoting toward security, standards and adversary-model assessment.

Anthropic activated its ASL-3 deployment and security standard with Claude Opus 4 on 22 May 2025 — the first real-world trigger of a responsible-scaling tier, focused on blocking bio-weapon uplift.

The International Network of AI Safety Institutes (launched Nov 2024) ran a third joint testing exercise focused on agentic AI systems across cyber and fraud strands.

EU AI Act obligations for general-purpose AI models applied from 2 Aug 2025; high-risk obligations under Annex III apply from 2 Aug 2026.

The Council of Europe Framework Convention on AI — the first legally binding international AI treaty — opened for signature in Sep 2024; the EU ratified it on 15 May 2026.

On 26 Aug 2025 the UN General Assembly created an Independent International Scientific Panel on AI (40 experts) and a Global Dialogue on AI Governance.

An OECD review of ~200 government AI use cases found 57% support automating or tailoring public services and 45% enhance decision-making — most still stuck in pilots.

A Stanford payroll study found a 13% relative decline in employment for workers aged 22–25 in AI-exposed occupations since late 2022, while older peers held steady.

Microsoft reported AI-enhanced phishing reached a 54% click-through rate (4.5× traditional) and AI-generated fake IDs grew 195% globally in 2025.

Decree No. 124 (15 Feb 2024) updated Russia's National AI Strategy to 2030, targeting over 11.2 trillion roubles of cumulative AI-driven GDP impact and 95% sector readiness.

On 19 Nov 2025 Sber open-sourced GigaChat 3 Ultra (a 702B-parameter mixture-of-experts) under the MIT licence, claiming the top rank on the Russian-language MERA benchmark.