Governance · Concept
Open Problems in Technical AI Risk Modeling
Workshop-derived agenda on structure, evidence integration, validation, and institutions for quantitative societal AI risk models.
Forecast horizon
Progress hinges on coupling quantitative models with independent evaluation and tiered disclosure institutions.
Connections
Connections · 4
How this node ties into the rest of the map, and the evidence behind each link.
to · informs 4/10
Constitutional Coverage Trilemma in AI Governance Both papers address gaps between societal risk/value demand and current technical-institutional AI governance supply.
+4 growth from · requires 4/10
EU AI Act Systemic risk assessment duties under regulation need rigorous quantitative risk-modeling methods the workshop agenda targets.
+4 growth from · enables 3/10
Zero-Overhead GPU Telemetry for AI Compute Governance Physical side-channel workload identification offers a concrete verification primitive for compute-governance risk models.
+3 growth from · informs 3/10
Threat-Model Coverage Gap in AI Safety Evaluation Coverage-gap critique shows benchmark-internal validity can miss deployment harms, feeding open risk-modeling questions.
+3 growthSignal sources
Signal sources
Dated facts from primary sources in this direction.
EU AI Act timeline Aug 2025
EU AI Act obligations for general-purpose AI models applied from 2 Aug 2025; high-risk obligations under Annex III apply from 2 Aug 2026.
EU AI Act — implementation tracker → First binding treaty May 2026
The Council of Europe Framework Convention on AI — the first legally binding international AI treaty — opened for signature in Sep 2024; the EU ratified it on 15 May 2026.
Council of Europe → UN scientific panel Aug 2025
On 26 Aug 2025 the UN General Assembly created an Independent International Scientific Panel on AI (40 experts) and a Global Dialogue on AI Governance.
United Nations →