Safety · Trend
Narrowing Open-Weight vs Closed Frontier Cyber Capability Gap
AISI finds leading open models trail frontier closed cyber capability by only 4–7 months, tighter than 2025 gaps.
Forecast horizon
Export-control and open-release risk models must update lag assumptions downward.
Connections
Connections · 3
How this node ties into the rest of the map, and the evidence behind each link.
from · tracked by 4/10
UK AI Safety Institute AISI cyber evals report open models GLM-5.2 and DeepSeek V4-Pro trailing closed frontier by 4–7 months.
+4 growth from · informs 4/10
Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) CSET security-oriented tech analysis informs policy response to shifting open vs closed capability balances.
+4 growth from · publishes 3/10
UK AI Safety Institute AISI cyber evaluation finds open-weight models only 4–7 months behind frontier closed models.
+3 growthSignal sources
Signal sources
Dated facts from primary sources in this direction.
US evaluation centre Jun 2025
In June 2025 the US AI Safety Institute was renamed the Center for AI Standards and Innovation (CAISI), pivoting toward security, standards and adversary-model assessment.
NIST → Frontier safeguards May 2025
Anthropic activated its ASL-3 deployment and security standard with Claude Opus 4 on 22 May 2025 — the first real-world trigger of a responsible-scaling tier, focused on blocking bio-weapon uplift.
Anthropic → Cross-border testing 2025
The International Network of AI Safety Institutes (launched Nov 2024) ran a third joint testing exercise focused on agentic AI systems across cyber and fraud strands.
European Commission — AI Office →