Governance · Concept
Capability-Based Planning for AI Crisis Preparedness
Defense-style capability-based planning framework replacing predict-then-act risk ranking for deep-uncertainty AI crises.
Forecast horizon
Could reorient national AI preparedness from likelihood rankings to capability portfolios.
Connections
Connections · 5
How this node ties into the rest of the map, and the evidence behind each link.
to · applies to 5/10
Dual-Use AI Capabilities and Bioterrorism Risk Pilot rates government capabilities against severe AI-enabled threat classes including dual-use pathways.
+5 growth to · supports 5/10
GPAI Governance Mapping across AI Middle-Power Jurisdictions Capability-based preparedness offers governments a deep-uncertainty alternative to likelihood-ranked AI risk lists.
+5 growth to · supports 3/10
Global AI Governance Floor Capability portfolios under deep uncertainty offer governments a preparedness method less dependent on disputed likelihood forecasts.
+3 growth to · applies to 3/10
AI Evaluability Gap Capability-based scenario rating is proposed because likelihood-based AI risk prediction is conceded to fail.
+3 growth to · supports 3/10
GPAI Governance Mapping across AI Middle-Power Jurisdictions Offers governments a preparedness method when likelihood-based AI risk prediction is conceded to fail.
+3 growthSignal sources
Signal sources
Dated facts from primary sources in this direction.
EU AI Act timeline Aug 2025
EU AI Act obligations for general-purpose AI models applied from 2 Aug 2025; high-risk obligations under Annex III apply from 2 Aug 2026.
EU AI Act — implementation tracker → First binding treaty May 2026
The Council of Europe Framework Convention on AI — the first legally binding international AI treaty — opened for signature in Sep 2024; the EU ratified it on 15 May 2026.
Council of Europe → UN scientific panel Aug 2025
On 26 Aug 2025 the UN General Assembly created an Independent International Scientific Panel on AI (40 experts) and a Global Dialogue on AI Governance.
United Nations →