Society · Concept
Human-AI Substitution Principle (HAT Model)
Analytical model of hierarchical task allocation deriving when AI replaces humans given skill-scaling asymmetry and risk.
Forecast horizon
Predicts abrupt workforce transitions, hybrid roles, and flatter managerial hierarchies.
Connections
Connections · 2
How this node ties into the rest of the map, and the evidence behind each link.
to · frames 5/10
Worker Adaptability to AI-Induced Job Displacement HAT substitution conditions formalize when AI replaces labor, complementing adaptive-capacity labor research.
+5 growth to · informs 4/10
Worker Adaptability to AI-Induced Job Displacement HAT substitution conditions formalize when replacement occurs, complementing adaptive-capacity labor metrics.
+4 growthSignal sources
Signal sources
Dated facts from primary sources in this direction.
AI in government Sep 2025
An OECD review of ~200 government AI use cases found 57% support automating or tailoring public services and 45% enhance decision-making — most still stuck in pilots.
OECD — Governing with AI → Labor signal Nov 2025
A Stanford payroll study found a 13% relative decline in employment for workers aged 22–25 in AI-exposed occupations since late 2022, while older peers held steady.
Stanford Digital Economy Lab → Information integrity Oct 2025
Microsoft reported AI-enhanced phishing reached a 54% click-through rate (4.5× traditional) and AI-generated fake IDs grew 195% globally in 2025.
Microsoft — Digital Defense Report 2025 →