Capabilities · Trend
LLM Probabilistic Reasoning Limitations
Benchmarking study finds LLMs achieve 96% accuracy on standard probability problems but only 59% on counterintuitive ones, with performance dropping 20–34% under token bias and misleading prompts.
Forecast horizon
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Signal sources
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Task horizon doubling Mar 2025
The length of software tasks AI agents can do autonomously at 50% reliability has doubled about every 7 months — and since 2024 closer to every ~3 months.
METR → Benchmarks saturating Apr 2025
In one year scores rose by 18.8, 48.9 and 67.3 points on MMMU, GPQA and SWE-bench; real-world software solve rate jumped from 4.4% to 71.7%.
Stanford HAI — AI Index 2025 → Autonomous coding 2025–2026
On SWE-bench Verified (500 real GitHub issues), autonomous coding agents reached ~80–86% by late 2025, up from under 50% in early 2025.
Epoch AI →